The first US government forecast incorporating the agricultural fallout from its trade war with China has come to a firm conclusion on soyabeans: China will import less, American farmers will lose business and Brazil will be a beneficiary.
美国政府发布首份考虑中美贸易战对美国农业影响的预测报告，认为中国将减少进口美国大豆，巴西将成为受益者。
Beijing last week increased duties on imported US soyabeans, cotton and other products by 25 percentage points in response to tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Donald Trump’s administration. Soyabeans are the US’s largest agricultural export to China and are grown in rural states that mainly voted for Mr Trump.
上周中国政府对美国输华大豆、棉花等产品加征25%的关税，以回应唐纳德特朗普政府对中国输美产品加征关税。大豆是美国最主要的对华出口农产品，种植大豆的农业州是特朗普的主要票仓。
As the top soyabean importer, accounting for more than 60 per cent of global trade, China’s move has rattled markets. Soyabean futures have slumped to levels at which many US farmers will lose money without federal assistance.
中国是全球最大的大豆进口国，占全球大豆贸易的逾60%，中国的举动会使整个市场发生震荡。大豆期货已跌至一定水平，如果没有联邦援助，很多美国农民会亏损。
The US Department of Agriculture, in monthly supply and demand estimates published on Thursday, cut its forecast for China’s soyabean imports from 103million to 95million tonnes in the coming marketing year, reduced its outlook for US soyabean exports by nearly 11 per cent from 62.3million to 55.5million tonnes and raised its estimate of Brazilian exports from 73million to 75million tonnes, a record high.
美国农业部(US Department of Agriculture)周四发布月度供需预测报告，将未来一个销售年度中国大豆进口预测从1.03亿吨下调至9500万吨，将美国大豆出口预测从6230万吨下调至5550万吨，下调近11%。另外，报告还把巴西大豆出口预测从7300万吨上调至7500万吨，这将创历史新高。
The new Chinese tariffs raised duties on US soyabeans from 13 per cent to 38 per cent, according to the US Soybean Export Council. The levy began redirecting trade flows even before taking effect on July 6.
根据美国大豆出口委员会(US Soybean Export Council)的数据，中国对美国大豆的关税从13%提高到38%。在新关税7月6日生效前，该关税就已经开始改变贸易流动走向。
Marcel Smits, chief financial officer of Cargill, the world’s largest agricultural trader, said in an interview that China has been cancelling purchases of US soyabeans and non-Chinese customers have been attracted to the US.
世界最大的农产品交易商嘉吉(Cargill)的首席财务官斯马塞尔斯米茨(Marcel Smits)在采访中表示，中国正在减少从美国购买大豆，而中国以外的买家正被吸引到美国。
“What is happening in the market is everyone is positioning in order to optimise their flows relative to the current tariff and pricing structures,” Mr Smits said.
斯米茨说：“每个人都在重新定位，目的是相对于当前关税和定价结构优化他们的交易流，这就是市场上正在发生的事情。”
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