导语：

　　智能手机行业走向成熟，到底是好事还是坏事？

　　苹果股价的持续下跌，智能手机销售放缓，为什么对于社会大众而言，可能是个令人欣喜的迹象，我们来一起看看《经济学人》给出的分析吧！

　　《经济学人》第八期赏析内容：

　　文章来源：《经济学人》2019年1月12日期刊Leaders 板块

　　Peak smartphone

　　January 12th 2019

　　Bad news for Apple. Good news for humanity.

　　The maturing of the smartphone industry should be celebrated, not lamented.

　　原文：

　　When apple cut its revenue estimate for the last quarter of 2018 because of unexpectedly slow sales of iPhones, markets convulsed. The company’s share price, which had been sliding for months, fell by a further 10% on January 3rd, the day after the news came out. Apple’s suppliers’ shares were also hit. This week Samsung, the world’s largest maker of smartphones by volume, which also sells components to other smartphone-makers, said its sales were weaker than expected for the quarter, too.

　　参考译文：

　　由于苹果手机出乎意料地滞销，苹果公司降低了2018年第四季度的收入预期，引发了市场震荡。1月3日，也就是这一消息传出后的第二天，苹果已持续下滑数月的股价进一步下跌10%。其供应商的股价也受到打击。上周，全球销量最大的智能手机制造商三星（也向其他智能手机制造商销售零部件）表示2018年第四季度销售额也低于预期销售额。

　　原文：

　　That smartphone sales have peaked, and seem to be leveling off at around 1.4 billion units a year, is good news for humanity.

　　参考译文：

　　智能手机的销量见顶，可能停留在每年约14亿部的水平，这对我们大众来说其实是个好消息。

　　原文：

　　Sales of 1.4 billion units a year implies 2.8 billion users who replace their handsets every two years, or 4.2 billion who replace them every three years. The reality is somewhere in between, and replacement cycles are lengthening as new models offer only marginal improvements. Many phones are used for longer than three years, often refurbished or as hand-me-downs. So even with flat sales, the longer gaps between upgrades mean that overall penetration is still rising. People who already have phones benefit, too. For all but the most obsessive gadget fans, the slowing treadmill of upgrades comes as a welcome relief.

　　参考译文：

　　智能手机市场每年售出14亿部手机，意味着28亿用户每两年换一次手机或42亿用户每三年换一次手机。但现实其实介乎这两者之间。而且由于新机没有太大改善，人们的换机周期也在变长。许多手机的使用时间超过三年，常常是被翻新或转给他人使用。因此，即使销售持平，换机间隔拉长意味着智能手机的整体渗透率仍在上升。已经有手机的人也会受益。除了科技产品狂粉，不需要频繁更换手机就可以让大家觉得使用起来很方便，很轻松。

　　原文：

　　Does that mean innovation is slowing? No. The latest phones contain amazingly clever technology, such as 3d face-scanners and cameras assisted by artificial intelligence. But as with mature technologies such as cars or washing machines, extra bells and whistles no longer make a deep impression.

　　参考译文：

　　这就意味着创新在放缓么？并不是。最新的手机搭载了精妙的技术，例如3D人脸扫描器和人工智能相机。但是，与汽车或洗衣机等成熟的技术一样，新添加的花哨功能已无法让消费者感到惊艳。

　　原文：

　　More important is that smartphones support  extra innovation in other areas. Deploying apps and services on an immature platform whose prospects are uncertain is risky; on a mature one it is not. Smartphones thus provide a foundation for today’s innovations, like mobile payments and video streaming, and for future ones, such as controlling “smart” home appliances or hailing robotaxis.

　　参考译文：

　　更重要的是智能手机支持了其他领域的创新。在前景不明的不成熟平台上部署应用和服务是有风险的；反之则安全得多。因此，智能手机为现在与未来的创新奠定了基础，无论是移动支付和视频流媒体，还是控制“智能”家电或网约无人驾驶出租车。

　　原文：

　　As computers become smaller, still more personal and closer to people’s bodies, many techies reckon that wearable devices, from smart watches to augmented-reality headsets, will be the next big thing. Even so, finding another product with the scope of the smartphone is a tall order. The smartphone retains its promise as the device that will make computing and communications universal. The recent slowing of smartphone sales is bad news for the industry, obviously. But for the rest of humanity it is a welcome sign that a transformative technology has become almost universal.

　　参考译文：

　　随着科技产品设备变得更小、更个性化、更贴身，许多技术人员认为，从智能手表到增强现实头盔的可穿戴设备将是下一大热门领域。即便如此，要找到另一个影响力能媲美智能手机的产品也是极为困难的。智能手机不负使命，成为普及计算和通信的设备。近期智能手机销售放缓对行业本身来说显然是个坏消息，但对于社会大众而言则是个令人欣喜的迹象，说明这项变革性技术已几乎惠及所有人。

　　下面为大家整理出在托福写作中可以使用的语言表达和素材论据，快来积累下吧。

　　素材赏析：

　　一：好词

　　1：lengthen

　　1）词性：v.

　　2）释义：加长，变长，延长

　　make or become longer

　　来源：Oxford American Writer’s Thesaurus

　　3）例句

　　The average life-span has lengthened from 70 to 75 years.

　　释义：平均寿命从70岁延长到了75岁。

　　来源：Oxford American Writer’s Thesaurus

　　2：obsessive

　　1）词性：adj.

　　2）释义：痴迷的，执着的

　　of, relating to, or characterized by obsession : deriving from obsession

　　来源：Merrian-Webster dictionary

　　3）词组拓展

　　obsessive neatness or tidiness 洁癖

　　来源：Oxford American Writer’s Thesaurus

　　3：innovation

　　1）词性：n.

　　2）释义：创新，革新

　　a new idea, method, or device : NOVELTY

　　来源：Merrian-Webster dictionary

　　3）同义词拓展

　　novelty, creativity, new measures, new methods

　　4）词组搭配

　　to make innovations in sth.

　　在某方面进行创新

　　来源：Oxford American Writer’s Thesaurus

　　4：reckon

　　1）词性：v.

　　2）释义：认为

　　to regard or think of as : CONSIDER

　　来源：Merrian-Webster dictionary

　　3）同义词拓展

　　suppose, consider

　　4）例句

　　He is reckoned among our best salesmen.

　　他被看作是我们最好的推销员之一。

　　来源：Oxford American Writer’s Thesaurus

　　二：好短语（地道搭配）

　　1：share price  股价

　　2：seem to be 可能，看起来像

　　3：level off 呈稳定状态

　　4：replace handsets  换手机

　　5：replacement cycles 换机周期

　　6：marginal improvements 微小的改进

　　7：refurbished or as hand-me-downs  被翻新或转给他人使用

　　8：3d face-scanners  3D人脸扫描器

　　9：cameras assisted by artificial intelligence 人工智能相机

　　10：make a deep impression 留下深刻印象

　　11：prospects are uncertain 前景不明

　　12：provide a foundation for today’s innovations 为当今创新奠定基础

　　13：mobile payments 移动支付

　　14：video streaming 视频流媒体

　　15：“smart” home appliances   智能家电

　　16： hailing robotaxis 网约无人驾驶出租车

　　17：a welcome sign 一个令人欣喜的迹象

　　18：transformative technology 变革性技术

　　三：好句

　　1：同位语

　　This week Samsung, the world’s largest maker of smartphones by volume, which also sells components to other smartphone-makers, said its sales were weaker than expected for the quarter, too.

　　2：状语从句

　　The reality is somewhere in between, and replacement cycles are lengthening as new models offer only marginal improvements.

　　3：并列结构

　　Smartphones thus provide a foundation for today’s innovations, like mobile payments and video streaming, and for future ones, such as controlling “smart” home appliances or hailing robotaxis.

　　四：好素材（作文论据）

　　看完智能手机销售行业行情和苹果股价持续下跌的形势，不难看出，智能手机市场已经处于饱和状态。由于市场每次推出新款产品改进很小，大众换机频率并不高，如果真要激发人们的购买需求和购买欲望，智能手机市场还需要再进行革新才行。去年的托福写作考试题目中有探讨要不要马上换新手机的话题，以下素材，小伙伴儿们可以纳入例子素材库灵活运用在自己的作文里哦！

　　托福作文素材：

　　Sales of 1.4 billion units a year implies 2.8 billion users who replace their handsets every two years, or 4.2 billion who replace them every three years. The reality is somewhere in between, and replacement cycles are lengthening as new models offer only marginal improvements. Many phones are used for longer than three years, often refurbished or as hand-me-downs. So even with flat sales, the longer gaps between upgrades mean that overall penetration is still rising. People who already have phones benefit, too. For all but the most obsessive gadget fans, the slowing treadmill of upgrades comes as a welcome relief.

　　The latest phones contain amazingly clever technology, such as 3d face-scanners and cameras assisted by artificial intelligence. But as with mature technologies such as cars or washing machines, extra bells and whistles no longer make a deep impression.

　　托福写作相关题目：

　　Some people prefer to buy technological devices as soon as they are available to the public, while other people prefer to wait. Which one do you prefer?

　　致亲爱的小伙伴们：

　　今天是“看英文外刊学托福”系列文章的最后一期文章，先暂停更新啦，希望调整后可以给大家带来更好的、更丰富的内容。

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